Oscar Index: Could It Be Feb Yet?

Welcome to week five of Movieline’s 2011-12 Oscar Index — week five! Already! We’re entering the 2nd month of the sucker, and our researchers and also the Institute for that Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics remain working hard discovering new hints and implications every day. Well, its not all day. OK, like, perhaps a couple occasions per week. So what can I say to you? It’s still early! Let’s possess a glimpse in the latest — if light — movement now. [Click on the graphs for full-size images.] The Key 10: 1. War Equine 2. The Artist 3. The Descendants 4. Moneyball 5. J. Edgar 6. The Assistance 7. Night time in Paris 8. The Ides of March 9. My Week With Marilyn 10. Very Noisy and extremely Close Outsiders: The Lady Using the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin: The Key from the Unicorn Mess, Tailor, Soldier, Spy The Tree of Existence, Harry Potter and also the Deathly Hallows After a week ago’s belabored (re)statement of purpose that virtually nobody read, rather homing in around the graphs as some kind of subjective dream scenario (yes, I truly, really must see War Equine leave with everything else, please, nothing will make me more happy than more lugubrious Spielberg-ian Oscar bait devoured with a self-satisfied couple of blue-haired Hollywood shut-inches), I’m just likely to cut to the chase this time around around: The Artist is an extremely, excellent film that gained a pleasant profile boost a week ago within the closing weekend from the NY Film Festival and because the Audience Award champion out in the Hamptons Film Festival. (It overshadowed The Descendants at both occasions — though not by much — and added another award in the Chicago Worldwide Film Festival too.) A cluster of commentators reiterated its status because the current film to conquer, although the experts aggregated at Gold Derby with each other get it topping out at fifth within the race. Possibly the greater intriguing discussion now concerned just the number of Best Picture nominees there'd came Jan. 24. Based on Steve Pond’s information, the Academy will choose seven: Yes, it’s imaginable that 10 films could finish track of the 250-or-so votes required to land around the Best Picture slate. With nearly 6,000 voters qualified to cast ballots, that number shouldn’t be unreachable. But because of the way votes is going to be disseminate among a large number of films, and also the limited chance to create a move following the initial count, I suspect the amount of nominees is going to be nearer to five rather than 10 most years. The Academy, in the end, revealed an important bit of information if this introduced the modification: PricewaterhouseCoopers returned and analyzed ten years price of voting, and came to the conclusion when the brand new system have been essentially, it might have led to many years of five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees. But never annually of 10. Sasha Stone, meanwhile, sees a bit more expansion, using the Artist, The Descendants, The Assistance, Night time in Paris and Moneyball locked in to the running without a doubt along with a couple of unseen prestige photos trying out the rest of slots — however many who means: The ultimate quantity of Best Picture nominees will most likely be between 5 and 9. 5% of 6000 is 300. That's a higher estimate of the number of ballots is going to be completed. Likely, we’re searching in a lower miracle number. To achieve that quantity of 300 you can either need to have a film with enormous support (like 20% of # 1 votes) otherwise have sufficient votes heading into round two that, using the partial votes remaining in the 20% ballots to achieve 300. […] I’ll most likely finish up predicting 9 nominees. Unless of course one of these simple films that hasn’t yet been seen drops off. There's wiggle room for a couple of surprises, however they’d need to be really stunning, passionate ones. Talking about which, a couple of options came about using the Adventure of Tintin (which gained raves from its London premiere) as well as Harry Potter and also the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, which Scott Feinberg reviews includes a major honours push forthcoming from Warner Bros. We’ve been hearing this for several weeks, obviously, also it’s a significant lengthy shot underneath the rule needing 5 % of first-place votes for any nomination. But stranger everything has happened. Wait. Really, no they haven’t. Anything colossally fucking strange compared to second installment from the seventh film inside a fantasy franchise according to best-selling youthful-adult books being nominated for the best Picture has ever happened within the good reputation for the Oscars. Ever. The Key 5: 1. Steven Spielberg, War Equine 2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants 3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist 4. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar 5. David Fincher, The Lady Using the Dragon Tattoo Outsiders: Stephen Daldry, Very Noisy and extremely Close George Clooney, The Ides of March Bennett Burns, Moneyball Woodsy Allen, Night time in Paris Tomas Alfredson, Mess, Tailor, Soldier, Spy Tate Taylor, The Assistance How you can enliven what's shaping as the worst category of the season? What about a game title? Without any clues to take except the graph above, guess the date which this story went at Gold Derby: “Oscarologists split between company directors Spielberg and Payne.” Only 18 more days to visit, everybody!